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Analysis of Navy Hornet Squadron Mishap Costs With Regard to Previously Flown Flight Hours: Statistical Correlation Demonstrated for F/A-18 Hornet and Super Hornets at the Macro Level【電子書籍】[ Progressive Management ]

＜p＞This report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. Naval aviation is inherently dangerous. Recently, budgetary pressures have reduced flight hours across naval aviation. The author's experience as a naval aviator has allowed him to see that mishaps occur more frequently in a squadron when flight hours are reduced. This thesis correlates F/A-18 Hornet and Super Hornet squadron previously flown flight hours with mishap costs. It uses a macro level approach by evaluating how a squadron's previously flown flight hours affect mishap cost and the likelihood of a mishap. This thesis does not attempt to assign mishap causality; this thesis describes only the relationship between mishap cost and previously flown flight hours.＜br /＞ Analyzing 15 years' worth of squadron monthly flight hours and mishaps shows that mishap cost is statistically correlated to the flight hours flown during the previous three and six months. A linear multivariate model was developed and used to analyze a dataset containing mishaps in the years 2001-2016. This analysis showed a reduction of ~$9,500 in mishap cost for every flight hour flown in the previous three months. Additionally, mishap rates were shown to increase during periods of low flight-hour operations. Cost per flight hour is approximately $10,000, making a mishap cost increase (when a mishap occurs) from a reduction in flight hours roughly equal to the cost per hour.＜/p＞ ＜p＞I. INTRODUCTION * A. BACKGROUND * 1. Mishaps * 2. Navy and Hornet Squadron Organization * B. PURPOSE OF THE STUDY * C. RESEARCH QUESTIONS * D. SCOPE * II. LITERATURE REVIEW * A. OVERVIEW * B. PREVIOUS ATTEMPTS TO CORRELATE MISHAPS IN NAVAL AVIATION. * 1. Reduced Flying Activity * 2. Human Factors * 3. Surveys * C. MAINTENANCE DATA * D. LEARNING AND FORGETTING * E. ACCIDENT FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES * III. METHODOLOGY * A. RESEARCH APPROACH * B. OPERATIONAL SQUADRONS * C. DETAILED MISHAP CLASSIFICATION * D. MISHAP SEVERITY * E. HOW MISHAP COST IS CALCULATED * F. DATA * 1. Mishap Data Collected * 2. DECKPLATE Data * G. ANALYZING THE POPULATION * H. DATA ANALYSIS * I. MODEL DEVELOPMENT * J. SECONDARY ANALYSIS * 1. Operational Implications / Mishap Rates * 2. Financial Implications * IV. RESULTS * A. MODEL ANALYSES * 1. Mishap Cost as a Linear Function of Previous Month's Sorties and Flight Hours * 2. Mishap Cost as a Linear Function of Previous Three Months' Sorties and Flight Hours * 3. Mishap Cost as a Linear Function of Previous Six Months' Sorties and Flight Hours * 4. Mishap Cost as a Linear Function of Ratio of (Previous Quarter's Flight Hours) / (Two Quarters Past Previous Flight Hours) * B. LAG STRUCTURE * C. MISHAP RATES * D. MISHAP COST PER FLIGHT HOUR * E. EFFECT OF SEVERITY CLASSIFICATION ON MISHAP COST * 1. Mishap Cost as a Linear Function of Previous Three Months' Sorties and Flight Hours (Severity Removed) * V. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS * A. SUMMARY * B. CONCLUSIONS * C. LIMITATIONS * D. RECOMMENDATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH＜/p＞画面が切り替わりますので、しばらくお待ち下さい。

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